Market Sizing: $17B Global K-12 SaaS Market - Powered by Google Gemini

For Internal Use: Detailed TAM/SAM/SOM analysis for worldwide Google-powered school management platform. This document provides comprehensive market sizing for YeboLearn's global expansion strategy.

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Market Sizing Framework

The Three Circles: TAM → SAM → SOM

TAM (Total Addressable Market): All potential revenue if we had 100% market share SAM (Serviceable Available Market): Realistic market we can serve with current product SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): What we can realistically capture in 5 years

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TAM: Global K-12 School Management Software Market

Market Definition

Total market for K-12 school management software worldwide

Calculation Method 1: Bottom-Up (Global)

Total K-12 Schools Worldwide:

• Developed Markets (US, Europe, Australia, Japan): 350,000 schools
• Emerging Markets (Africa, Middle East, SE Asia, Latin America): 650,000 schools Total: 1,000,000 schools worldwide

Average Students per School (Blended):

• Developed markets: 400 students/school
• Emerging markets: 300 students/school
• Global average: 350 students/school

Total Students: 1,000,000 schools × 350 students = 350M students

Average Software Spend (Blended):

• Developed markets: $80-150/student/year (350K schools × 400 students × $100 = $14B)
• Emerging markets: $20-40/student/year (650K schools × 300 students × $30 = $5.85B)
• Blended average: $60/student/year

TAM Calculation:

350M students × $60/student = $21B annually

TAM: $17B-21B per year (K-12 school management software)

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Calculation Method 2: Top-Down (Global)

Global Education Technology Market: $404B (2024, HolonIQ) K-12 School Management Software: 4-5% of global edtech Global K-12 School Management TAM: $404B × 4.5% = $18.2B

Validation: Gartner K-12 SaaS Market Report (2024): $18.5B growing at 18-22% CAGR

Conservative Estimate: $17B - $21B

TAM: $17B (conservative global K-12 school management)

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SAM: Serviceable Available Market

Market Definition

Global qualified schools we can realistically serve with our Google Gemini-powered platform

Qualification Criteria

Must Have:

1. Internet connectivity (at least 3G/broadband)
2. 100+ enrolled students (minimum viable size)
3. Payment capability ($30-80/student/year)
4. English/local language support

School Types:

• Public schools (government-funded, tech-forward)
• Private schools (all sizes)
• Charter/academy schools
• International schools
• Semi-private/aided schools

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SAM Calculation

Developed Markets Qualified Schools:

• US: 98,000 public schools (80,000 qualified) + 25,000 private (20,000 qualified) = 100,000 schools
• Europe: 120,000 qualified schools (UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy)
• Australia/New Zealand: 12,000 qualified schools
• Japan/South Korea: 18,000 qualified schools Total Developed: 250,000 qualified schools

Emerging Markets Qualified Schools:

• Africa (SSA): 57,000 qualified schools (private, semi-private, progressive public)
• Middle East: 35,000 qualified schools (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey)
• Southeast Asia: 45,000 qualified schools (Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia)
• Latin America: 38,000 qualified schools (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina) Total Emerging: 175,000 qualified schools

Total Global SAM: 425,000 qualified schools

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Average Students per School:

• Developed markets: 450 students
• Emerging markets: 320 students
• Blended average: 400 students

Total Addressable Students: 425,000 schools × 400 students = 170M students

Blended Pricing:

• Developed markets: $80/student/year (250K schools)
• Emerging markets: $30/student/year (175K schools)
• Blended average: $60/student/year

SAM Calculation:

170M students × $60/student = $10.2B annually

SAM: $10B (conservative global serviceable market)

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SAM by Geographic Market

Developed Markets (Priority 1 - High Value):

• United States: 100,000 qualified schools × 450 students × $80/student = $3.6B market
• Europe: 120,000 qualified schools × 420 students × $80/student = $4.0B market
  • UK: 35,000 schools
  • Germany: 30,000 schools
  • France: 25,000 schools
  • Spain/Italy: 30,000 schools
• Australia/New Zealand: 12,000 qualified schools × 450 students × $80/student = $432M market
• Japan/South Korea: 18,000 qualified schools × 400 students × $80/student = $576M market

Total Developed: 250,000 schools | Market: $8.6B

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Emerging Markets (Priority 2 - Volume Play):

• Africa (SSA): 57,000 qualified schools × 320 students × $30/student = $547M market

  • Southern Africa: 9,600 schools (South Africa: 8,500, Botswana: 400, Namibia: 350)
  • East Africa: 30,200 schools (Kenya: 12,000, Tanzania: 7,500, Uganda: 6,000, Rwanda: 1,200)
  • West Africa: 17,200 schools (Nigeria: 8,000, Ghana: 4,500, Ivory Coast: 2,500)

• Middle East: 35,000 qualified schools × 350 students × $30/student = $368M market

  • UAE: 3,000 schools
  • Saudi Arabia: 12,000 schools
  • Egypt: 10,000 schools
  • Turkey: 8,000 schools
  • Qatar/Kuwait/Oman: 2,000 schools

• Southeast Asia: 45,000 qualified schools × 300 students × $30/student = $405M market

  • Philippines: 12,000 schools
  • Indonesia: 15,000 schools
  • Thailand: 8,000 schools
  • Vietnam: 7,000 schools
  • Malaysia: 3,000 schools

• Latin America: 38,000 qualified schools × 310 students × $30/student = $354M market

  • Brazil: 15,000 schools
  • Mexico: 12,000 schools
  • Chile: 4,000 schools
  • Colombia: 4,000 schools
  • Argentina: 3,000 schools

Total Emerging: 175,000 schools | Market: $1.67B

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Total SAM: 425,000 schools | $10.3B global market

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SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market

Market Definition

Realistic market share YeboLearn can capture globally in 5 years

Assumptions

Competitive Position:

• Only Google Gemini-powered platform worldwide (18-24 month monopoly)
• Superior product (15+ AI features vs PowerSchool's 5-7 basic AI)
• Aggressive sales execution (outbound + inbound + partnerships)
• Venture-backed growth (funding enables global scale)
• Google credibility unlocks developed markets

Market Share Target: 0.6-0.8% of global SAM by Year 5 (realistic for startup)

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SOM Calculation (Year 5)

Conservative Scenario:

425,000 schools (SAM) × 0.6% = 2,550 schools

Developed markets: 1,500 schools × 450 students × $80 = $54M ARR
Emerging markets: 1,050 schools × 320 students × $30 = $10M ARR

Total: $64M ARR

Moderate Scenario (Base Case):

425,000 schools × 0.7% = 2,975 schools

Developed markets: 1,800 schools × 450 students × $80 = $64.8M ARR
Emerging markets: 1,175 schools × 320 students × $30 = $11.3M ARR

Total: $76M ARR

Aggressive Scenario:

425,000 schools × 0.95% = 4,038 schools

Developed markets: 2,500 schools × 450 students × $80 = $90M ARR
Emerging markets: 1,538 schools × 320 students × $30 = $14.8M ARR

Total: $104.8M ARR

SOM Range: $64M - $105M ARR by Year 5

Base Case SOM: $80M ARR (3,000 schools worldwide)

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Market Penetration Timeline

Year-by-Year Global Market Share Growth

Year	Schools	% of SAM	Geographic Mix	ARR	Notes
1	65	0.015%	20 US, 45 Africa	$2.4M	US pilots + Africa validation
2	210	0.049%	80 US/Europe, 130 Emerging	$9.8M	US expansion begins
3	550	0.13%	300 Developed, 250 Emerging	$27M	Europe launch, Africa scale
4	1,300	0.31%	800 Developed, 500 Emerging	$58M	Multi-region dominance
5	2,800	0.66%	1,700 Developed, 1,100 Emerging	$112M	Global category leadership

Key Insight: 0.66% global market share = $112M ARR (base case $80M-112M range)

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Geographic Rollout Strategy

Year 1-2: Africa Beachhead + US Pilots

• Africa: 45-65 schools (battle-tested product, prove AI works at scale)
• US: 15-20 schools (credibility, developed market validation)
• Goal: 65-88 schools, $2.4M-3.2M ARR

Year 2-3: US Expansion + Europe Entry

• US: Scale to 80-120 schools (early majority adoption, category awareness)
• Europe: Launch in UK, Germany (20-30 schools)
• Africa: Continue scaling (130-150 schools)
• Goal: 210-280 schools cumulative, $9.8M-15M ARR

Year 4-5: Multi-Region Dominance

• US/Europe: 800-1,200 schools (category leadership in developed markets)
• Emerging Markets: 500-800 schools (Africa, Middle East, SE Asia)
• Goal: 1,300-2,000 schools cumulative, $58M-90M ARR

Year 5: Global Category Leadership

• Developed markets: 1,700-2,500 schools ($70M-100M ARR)
• Emerging markets: 1,100-1,500 schools ($12M-18M ARR)
• Total: 2,800-4,000 schools, $82M-118M ARR

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Market Growth Drivers

1. Digital Transformation Acceleration (Post-COVID)

Pre-2020:

• 15-20% of African schools using SaaS school management
• Resistance to cloud-based systems
• Preference for on-premise/Excel

Post-2020:

• 35-40% adoption (2.5x growth in 4 years)
• Comfort with cloud/SaaS (forced adoption during lockdowns)
• Expectation for digital platforms

Impact: Market growing 25-30% annually (vs 10-15% pre-COVID)

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2. Smartphone Penetration & Mobile Money

2020:

• 45% smartphone penetration in SSA
• 60% mobile money adoption

2025:

• 75% smartphone penetration (1.67x growth)
• 85% mobile money adoption (M-Pesa, MTN, Vodacom ubiquitous)

Impact: Mobile-first platforms like YeboLearn can reach 75% of schools (vs 45% in 2020)

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3. AI Awareness (ChatGPT Effect)

Pre-2023:

• AI seen as "future tech"
• Low awareness in education sector

Post-ChatGPT (2023+):

• AI mainstream (everyone knows ChatGPT)
• Expectation for AI in education
• "Why doesn't our school have AI?" from parents

Impact: AI goes from "nice-to-have" to "must-have" in 18 months

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4. Government Digitization Initiatives

Countries with Active EdTech Programs:

• Kenya: Digital Literacy Program (1M+ students)
• Rwanda: Smart Classroom Initiative
• South Africa: SA Connect (broadband for schools)
• Nigeria: National Digital Economy Policy

Impact: Government funding/partnerships accelerate adoption

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5. Rising Education Costs → SaaS Efficiency Demand

Trend:

• Teacher salaries up 8-12%/year
• Operating costs up 10-15%/year
• School fees growth limited (parent affordability)

Result: Schools NEED efficiency gains (AI saves R240K/semester = budget relief)

Impact: Value proposition becomes critical (not just nice-to-have)

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Competitive Market Share Analysis

Global Market Leaders (Estimated)

Platform	Est. Schools (Global)	Market Share (SAM)	ARR Estimate	AI Features
PowerSchool	45,000 (primarily US)	10.6%	$1.8B-2.4B	5-7 basic AI
Alma	5,000 (US/Europe)	1.2%	$200M-300M	2-3 basic AI
Infinite Campus	7,500 (US)	1.8%	$300M-400M	0-2 basic AI
Skyward	3,000 (US)	0.7%	$120M-180M	0 AI
Regional Players	25,000 (fragmented)	5.9%	$600M-800M	0-2 AI
Zeraki	4,000 (East Africa)	0.9%	$40M	0 AI
Excel/WhatsApp	250,000 (worldwide)	58.8%	$0	0 AI
Other SaaS	35,000	8.2%	$700M	0-1 AI
No System	50,000	11.8%	$0	0

Key Insights:

1. PowerSchool dominates developed markets (10.6% global share, but vulnerable - basic AI vs Google Gemini)
2. 70.6% still use Excel/WhatsApp or have no system (massive upgrade opportunity worldwide)
3. NO competitor has Google Gemini AI (only proprietary basic AI with 5-7 features max)
4. Market is fragmented (top player has <11% share, room for Google-powered disruptor)

Opportunity: YeboLearn can capture 0.6-0.8% in 5 years by being ONLY Google Gemini platform worldwide

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Market Share Capture Strategy

Phase 1: Excel/WhatsApp Users Worldwide (58.8% of market, 250,000 schools)

Target: Schools using free tools globally (both developed and emerging markets)

Value Prop: "Stop wasting $15K-30K/year on manual labor. Get Google Gemini AI for $30-80/year."

Conversion Strategy:

• ROI calculator (show labor waste, quantify time savings)
• Free trial (30 days, experience Google AI)
• Tiered pricing ($30 emerging, $80 developed = accessible entry point)
• Google brand credibility ("Same AI as Google Search")

Goal: Convert 0.4-0.6% of Excel users = 1,000-1,500 schools by Year 5

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Phase 2: PowerSchool Customers (10.6% of market, 45,000 schools)

Target: US/developed market schools paying $100-150/year for basic AI

Value Prop: "15+ Google Gemini AI features vs PowerSchool's 5-7 basic AI. Save $20-70/student/year."

Conversion Strategy:

• Competitive battle cards (Google Gemini vs proprietary AI)
• Migration assistance (free data import, dedicated onboarding)
• Volume discounts (district-wide deals)
• Feature comparison matrix (AI capabilities head-to-head)

Goal: Win 2-3% of PowerSchool customers = 900-1,350 schools by Year 5

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Phase 3: Emerging Markets No System (11.8% of market, 50,000 schools)

Target: Schools in Africa, Middle East, SE Asia with no current system

Value Prop: "Modern school management powered by Google Gemini. $30/year per student."

Conversion Strategy:

• Turnkey onboarding (2 weeks to live)
• Training included (multilingual support)
• Government partnerships (bulk adoption programs)
• Mobile-first design (accessible on any device)

Goal: Convert 350-500 schools by Year 5

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TAM Expansion Opportunities (Year 5+)

Year 5+ Expansion Markets

1. Geographic Expansion (Beyond Initial Markets)

China:

• 200,000 schools (regulatory challenges, long-term Year 7-10 opportunity)
• Government approval required, but massive market Additional TAM: +$2B-3B

India:

• 300,000 schools (massive volume but lower ARPU, $20/student max)
• English-language advantage, large private school sector Additional TAM: +$1.8B

Additional Africa:

• Francophone markets (translate Google AI to French)
• Portuguese-speaking (Mozambique, Angola)
• North Africa (Egypt, Morocco, Algeria) Additional TAM: +$600M-800M

Total Geographic Expansion TAM: +$3B-5B

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2. Product Expansion (Adjacent Markets)

Higher Education:

• 25,000 universities worldwide × $200K/institution average
• University management, student services, research administration Additional TAM: $5B

Corporate Training:

• Enterprise learning management systems
• Fortune 5000 + SMBs worldwide Additional TAM: $15B

Tutoring Centers:

• After-school programs, test prep centers, enrichment academies
• 100,000+ centers worldwide Additional TAM: $8B

Total Product Expansion TAM: +$28B

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3. API/Ecosystem Revenue

Marketplace:

• 3rd-party curriculum providers
• Tutoring services integrations
• Assessment tools partnerships
• EdTech app ecosystem Revenue Share: 20-30% of transactionsAdditional Revenue: +$50M-100M annually (Year 5+)

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Total Expanded TAM: $45B+ (Year 5+ if we dominate K-12 first)

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Market Sizing Validation

Method 1: PowerSchool Benchmark

PowerSchool Performance:

• 45,000 schools globally (primarily US)
• Market capitalization: $3B (2024)
• Estimated revenue: $2B-2.5B annually
• Market share: 10.6% of global SAM

Extrapolation:

If PowerSchool (10.6% share) = $2.3B revenue
Then 100% market = $2.3B ÷ 10.6% = $21.7B total market

Validation: Aligns with $17B-21B TAM calculation

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Method 2: HolonIQ Global EdTech Report (2024)

Global Market Analysis:

• Global edtech market: $404B total (2024)
• K-12 school management software: 4-5% of total edtech K-12 School Management Market: $16.2B - $20.2B

Validation: Confirms $17B TAM is conservative

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Method 3: Gartner/McKinsey K-12 SaaS Reports

Industry Analyst Consensus:

• Gartner K-12 SaaS Market Report: $18.5B (2024)
• Growing at 18-22% CAGR (2024-2029)
• Driven by digital transformation, AI adoption, cloud migration

McKinsey Education Technology Report:

• K-12 administrative software: $17.8B (2024)
• Expected to reach $45B by 2030

Validation: $17B TAM is conservative, market growing rapidly

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Method 4: Bottom-Up Regional Validation

US Market:

• 130,000 K-12 schools total
• 100,000 qualified schools (YeboLearn SAM)
• PowerSchool revenue: $1.8B-2B from ~40,000 US schools
• Extrapolation: 100,000 schools × $45K average = $4.5B (US alone)

Europe Market:

• 120,000 qualified schools
• Average spend: $80/student × 420 students = $33.6K per school
• Total: 120,000 × $33.6K = $4.0B (Europe)

Emerging Markets:

• 175,000 qualified schools × $9.6K average = $1.68B

Total Bottom-Up: $10.2B SAM (matches our calculation)

Validation: Multiple methods confirm $17B TAM, $10B SAM

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Market Sizing Summary

The Numbers

Market	Value	Schools	Notes
TAM	$17B	1,000,000	Global K-12 school management software
SAM	$10B	425,000	Qualified schools worldwide we can serve
SOM (Year 5)	$80M-112M	2,800-3,500	0.66% market share, realistic global target

The Opportunity

$10B serviceable global market with:

• 0% Google Gemini AI penetration (NO competitors have Google AI)
• 70.6% still using Excel/WhatsApp or no system (massive upgrade opportunity)
• 18-22% annual market growth (AI transformation accelerating)
• Fragmented competition (top player PowerSchool has <11% share)

YeboLearn's Position:

• Only Google Gemini-powered platform worldwide (18-24 month monopoly)
• Superior product (15+ Google AI features vs PowerSchool's 5-7 basic AI)
• Google credibility unlocks developed markets ($80/student pricing)
• Accessible pricing dominates emerging markets ($30/student)
• 0.66% global market share by Year 5 = $80M-112M ARR = $600M-1B valuation (at 8-12x ARR SaaS multiples)

This is a global land-grab opportunity in a massive, fast-growing market.

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Regional Market Priorities

Year 1-2: Africa Beachhead + US Pilots ($547M Africa SAM + $3.6B US SAM)

Africa Focus:

• South Africa: 30-40 schools (battle-tested product)
• Kenya: 15-25 schools (East Africa validation)
• Nigeria: 5-10 schools (West Africa entry)

US Focus:

• California: 8-10 schools (tech-forward, early adopters)
• Texas: 5-8 schools (large market, scale opportunity)
• New York: 2-5 schools (prestige, proof of concept)

Target: 65-88 schools total Revenue Potential: $2.4M-3.2M ARR Strategic Goal: Battle-tested product in Africa + developed market credibility in US

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Year 2-3: US Expansion + Europe Entry ($3.6B US + $4.0B Europe SAM)

US Scale:

• Expand to 80-120 schools across 10-15 states
• Focus: Mid-size districts (3,000-10,000 students)
• Early majority adoption, category awareness building

Europe Launch:

• UK: 12-18 schools (English-language advantage)
• Germany: 8-12 schools (largest European market)

Africa Continue:

• Scale to 130-150 schools (maintain momentum)

Target: 210-280 schools cumulative Revenue Potential: $9.8M-15M ARR Strategic Goal: Multi-continent validation, category awareness in developed markets

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Year 4-5: Multi-Region Dominance ($8.6B Developed + $1.67B Emerging SAM)

Developed Markets (Priority):

• US: 500-800 schools (category leadership)
• Europe: 200-300 schools (UK, Germany, France, Spain)
• Australia: 50-80 schools (English-speaking, high ARPU)
• Japan/Korea: 50-100 schools (Asia entry)

Emerging Markets (Scale):

• Africa: 300-400 schools (regional dominance)
• Middle East: 100-150 schools (UAE, Saudi Arabia)
• SE Asia: 80-120 schools (Philippines, Thailand)
• Latin America: 20-50 schools (Brazil, Mexico entry)

Target: 1,300-2,000 schools cumulative Revenue Potential: $58M-90M ARR Strategic Goal: Global category leadership, multi-region dominance

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Year 5: Global Category Leadership

Developed Markets:

• 1,700-2,500 schools across US, Europe, Australia, Asia
• $70M-100M ARR from developed markets
• Competing directly with PowerSchool for market share

Emerging Markets:

• 1,100-1,500 schools across Africa, Middle East, SE Asia, Latin America
• $12M-18M ARR from emerging markets
• Market leader in key emerging regions

Total: 2,800-4,000 schools, $82M-118M ARR Strategic Goal: Undisputed Google Gemini AI category leader worldwide

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The Market Sizing Reality

$17B global K-12 SaaS market.

PowerSchool has 10.6% share with 5-7 basic AI features.

YeboLearn has 15+ Google Gemini AI features (same AI as Google Search).

70.6% of schools worldwide still use Excel or have no system.

0.6% global market share = $80M ARR = $600M-1B valuation (at 8-12x ARR SaaS multiples).

This is the opportunity.

Google Gemini credibility unlocks developed markets.

Accessible pricing ($30/year) dominates emerging markets.

Land grab starts NOW.

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Last Updated: November 23, 2025 Next Review: Annually (update with new market data) Sources: HolonIQ 2024, Gartner K-12 SaaS Report, PowerSchool 10-K filings, McKinsey Education Technology Report, YeboLearn global analysis