Revenue Analytics
Revenue analytics provide comprehensive visibility into YeboLearn's revenue performance, growth drivers, and future projections. This analysis informs pricing decisions, sales strategy, and investor communications.
Revenue Overview
Current Revenue Performance
November 2025 Snapshot:
| Metric | Value | Month-over-Month | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRR | $247,000 | +3.78% (+$9,000) | +70% (+$102,000) |
| ARR | $2.96M | +3.78% (+$108,000 annual) | +38% |
| Active Schools | 145 | +7.4% (+10 schools) | +59% (+54 schools) |
| ARPU | $1,703/month | +2.7% (+$45) | +6.9% (+$110) |
Status: On track for $3M ARR by year-end, strong growth trajectory
MRR Movement Analysis
November 2025 MRR Waterfall:
Starting MRR (Nov 1): $238,000 ████████████████████████
New Customer MRR: +$18,000 ██████
- 5 Professional ($9,000)
- 6 Essentials ($5,000)
- 2 Enterprise ($9,000)
- Less: 13 total = $18,000 net
Expansion MRR: +$7,200 ███
- 2 upgrades Pro→Ent ($5,400)
- 2 upgrades Ess→Pro ($1,800)
- 8 student count increases ($600)
- Less: downgrades = $7,200 net
Contraction MRR: -$3,600 ██
- 2 downgrades Pro→Ess
Churned MRR: -$12,600 █████
- 3 Essentials ($2,500)
- 2 Professional ($3,600)
- 0 Enterprise ($0)
- Additional churn: $6,500
Ending MRR (Nov 30): $247,000 ██████████████████████████
Net New MRR: +$9,000 ████
Growth Rate: +3.78%MRR Component Breakdown:
- New MRR: 75% of gross new MRR (target: 70%+)
- Expansion MRR: 30% of gross new MRR (target: 25%+) ✓
- Churn Rate: 5.3% gross churn (target: <6%) ✓
- Net Churn: -2.3% (negative = expansion exceeds churn) ✓
Historical MRR Trends
MRR Growth (Last 12 Months):
| Month | MRR | Net New MRR | MoM Growth | New Schools | Churned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2024 | $145K | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 2025 | $155K | +$10K | 6.9% | 8 | 2 |
| Feb 2025 | $165K | +$10K | 6.5% | 9 | 3 |
| Mar 2025 | $180K | +$15K | 9.1% | 11 | 2 |
| Apr 2025 | $192K | +$12K | 6.7% | 10 | 3 |
| May 2025 | $204K | +$12K | 6.3% | 12 | 4 |
| Jun 2025 | $216K | +$12K | 5.9% | 10 | 2 |
| Jul 2025 | $228K | +$12K | 5.6% | 12 | 3 |
| Aug 2025 | $238K | +$10K | 4.4% | 14 | 6 |
| Sep 2025 | $245K | +$7K | 2.9% | 12 | 5 |
| Oct 2025 | $251K | +$6K | 2.4% | 15 | 4 |
| Nov 2025 | $247K | -$4K | -1.6% | 13 | 3 |
Trend Analysis:
- Acceleration Period (Jan-Mar): Strong growth, market traction
- Steady Growth (Apr-Aug): Consistent performance
- Deceleration (Sep-Nov): Typical Q4 slowdown, holiday impact
- Overall Trajectory: Healthy 70% YoY growth
ARR Evolution
Quarterly ARR Performance:
| Quarter | Starting ARR | Ending ARR | Net New ARR | QoQ Growth | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $1.56M | $1.74M | $180K | 11.5% | - |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74M | $2.16M | $420K | 24.1% | - |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16M | $2.45M | $290K | 13.4% | - |
| Q3 2025 | $2.45M | $2.76M | $310K | 12.7% | - |
| Q4 2025 (proj) | $2.76M | $3.08M | $320K | 11.6% | 77% |
Annual Targets:
- 2025 Goal: $3.0M ARR (98% achieved as of Nov 30)
- 2026 Goal: $5.0M ARR (67% growth required)
- Path to Goal: Add $166K MRR over 12 months (~14 schools/month at current ARPU)
Revenue by Tier
Tier Distribution
Current MRR by Tier (November 2025):
| Tier | Schools | % of Base | MRR | % of MRR | ARPU | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise | 12 | 8.3% | $54,000 | 21.9% | $4,500 | +50% |
| Professional | 85 | 58.6% | $153,000 | 61.9% | $1,800 | +42% |
| Essentials | 48 | 33.1% | $40,000 | 16.2% | $833 | +28% |
| Total | 145 | 100% | $247,000 | 100% | $1,703 | +38% |
Tier Trends:
- Enterprise: Growing faster than company average (high-value focus)
- Professional: Core revenue driver, steady growth
- Essentials: Entry point, conversion funnel to higher tiers
Tier Movement Analysis
Quarterly Tier Migrations (Q4 2025):
Upgrades (Positive):
Essentials → Professional: 8 schools (+$1,800 × 8 = +$14,400 MRR)
Professional → Enterprise: 6 schools (+$2,700 × 6 = +$16,200 MRR)
Total Upgrade Impact: +$30,600 MRR
Downgrades (Negative):
Enterprise → Professional: 0 schools ($0 MRR impact)
Professional → Essentials: 2 schools (-$1,967 × 2 = -$3,934 MRR)
Total Downgrade Impact: -$3,934 MRR
Net Tier Migration Impact: +$26,666 MRRTier Migration Rates:
- Essentials → Professional: 17% quarterly conversion (excellent)
- Professional → Enterprise: 7% quarterly conversion (good)
- Downgrade Rate: 2.4% quarterly (low, healthy)
Target Migration Rates:
- Essentials → Professional: 15%+ quarterly ✓
- Professional → Enterprise: 5%+ quarterly ✓
- Downgrade Rate: <5% quarterly ✓
Tier Economics
Tier Profitability Analysis:
| Tier | ARPU | COGS/School | Gross Margin | CAC | CAC Payback | LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise | $4,500 | $1,200 | 73% | $8,500 | 2.6 mo | $292,500 |
| Professional | $1,800 | $720 | 60% | $2,400 | 2.3 mo | $56,160 |
| Essentials | $833 | $380 | 54% | $1,800 | 4.8 mo | $11,195 |
Insights:
- Enterprise: Highest margin, longer sales cycle justified by LTV
- Professional: Best balance of volume and economics
- Essentials: Lower margin but important for land-and-expand strategy
Revenue by Region
Geographic Revenue Distribution
MRR by Province (November 2025):
| Region | Schools | MRR | % of Total | ARPU | Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauteng | 58 | $107,300 | 43.4% | $1,850 | +61% |
| Western Cape | 38 | $65,360 | 26.5% | $1,720 | +58% |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 24 | $37,920 | 15.4% | $1,580 | +50% |
| Eastern Cape | 15 | $21,750 | 8.8% | $1,450 | +67% |
| Other Provinces | 10 | $14,670 | 5.9% | $1,467 | +42% |
| Total | 145 | $247,000 | 100% | $1,703 | +58% |
Regional Insights:
- Gauteng: Largest market, premium ARPU, competitive landscape
- Western Cape: Fast-growing, tech-forward schools, strong pipeline
- KZN: Emerging market, lower ARPU but improving
- Eastern Cape: Highest growth rate, untapped opportunity
Regional Expansion Strategy
Target Regional Mix (End of 2026):
| Region | Current % | Target % | Required Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gauteng | 43.4% | 40% | +38% (maintain dominance) |
| Western Cape | 26.5% | 28% | +58% (accelerate) |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 15.4% | 18% | +75% (expand) |
| Eastern Cape | 8.8% | 10% | +70% (invest) |
| Other | 5.9% | 4% | +2% (opportunistic) |
Regional Go-to-Market:
- Gauteng: Compete on features, target premium schools
- Western Cape: Scale successful playbook, hire local sales
- KZN: Build awareness, regional partnerships
- Eastern Cape: Land-and-expand, focus on larger schools
Revenue Trends and Seasonality
Monthly Seasonality Patterns
Seasonal Index (100 = average month):
| Month | Seasonal Index | Typical Performance |
|---|---|---|
| January | 115 | Strong (new school year planning) |
| February | 125 | Peak (school year starts, budget release) |
| March | 110 | Strong (momentum continues) |
| April | 105 | Above average |
| May | 95 | Average |
| June | 90 | Below average (mid-year) |
| July | 85 | Low (winter break) |
| August | 100 | Average (term 3 starts) |
| September | 105 | Above average |
| October | 95 | Average |
| November | 80 | Low (year-end, holidays) |
| December | 70 | Lowest (summer break, holidays) |
Seasonal Strategies:
- Q1 (Jan-Mar): Aggressive growth, capitalize on budget releases
- Q2 (Apr-Jun): Steady acquisition, focus on retention
- Q3 (Jul-Sep): Mid-year push, launch new features
- Q4 (Oct-Dec): Retention focus, set up for strong Q1
Year-over-Year Trends
YoY Revenue Growth Drivers:
| Driver | Contribution to Growth | Insight |
|---|---|---|
| New Customer Acquisition | 45% | Primary growth engine |
| Tier Upgrades | 28% | Strong expansion |
| Student Count Increases | 18% | Usage-based growth |
| Price Increases | 9% | Annual price adjustments |
Compounding Effects:
- Base revenue grows through expansion
- Newer cohorts start at higher ARPU
- Retention improvements amplify growth
Revenue Forecasting
Short-Term Forecast (Next 3 Months)
December 2025 - February 2026 Projection:
| Month | Projected MRR | Assumptions | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | $252K | +$5K (+2%) - Holiday slowdown | High (85%) |
| Jan 2026 | $268K | +$16K (+6.3%) - New year surge | Medium (75%) |
| Feb 2026 | $285K | +$17K (+6.3%) - School year start | Medium (70%) |
Forecast Assumptions:
- December: 8 new schools, 2 churns, normal seasonality
- January: 15 new schools, 3 churns, budget release timing
- February: 16 new schools, 2 churns, peak season
Risk Factors:
- Holiday period uncertainty (Dec)
- Budget approval delays (Jan-Feb)
- Competitive pressure in peak season
Medium-Term Forecast (Q1-Q4 2026)
Quarterly MRR Projections:
| Quarter | Starting MRR | Ending MRR | Net New MRR | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $247K | $335K | +$88K | 35.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $335K | $380K | +$45K | 13.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $380K | $410K | +$30K | 7.9% |
| Q4 2026 | $410K | $417K | +$7K | 1.7% |
Annual 2026 Target: $417K MRR ($5.0M ARR)
Forecast Methodology:
- Bottom-up: Sales pipeline analysis (60% weight)
- Top-down: Historical growth trends (25% weight)
- Market-based: TAM and competitive dynamics (15% weight)
Confidence Levels:
- Q1 2026: 75% confidence (strong pipeline visibility)
- Q2 2026: 60% confidence (reasonable visibility)
- Q3-Q4 2026: 45% confidence (limited visibility)
Long-Term Projection (2027-2028)
Annual ARR Targets:
| Year | ARR Target | YoY Growth | Schools | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 (actual) | $3.0M | 38% | 145 | $1,703 |
| 2026 (plan) | $5.0M | 67% | 250 | $1,668 |
| 2027 (goal) | $8.5M | 70% | 420 | $1,685 |
| 2028 (goal) | $14.5M | 71% | 710 | $1,700 |
Growth Strategy by Year:
- 2026: Scale sales team, expand regions, launch mobile app
- 2027: Enter new markets (Nigeria, Kenya), add premium features
- 2028: International expansion, enterprise focus, platform ecosystem
Revenue Quality Metrics
Revenue Retention
Net Revenue Retention (Last 12 Months):
| Cohort | Starting MRR | Current MRR | Churned | Expansion | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2023 | $18,500 | $15,200 | -$6,100 | +$3,800 | 103% |
| Feb 2024 | $28,500 | $25,400 | -$11,300 | +$8,200 | 118% |
| May 2024 | $35,200 | $31,800 | -$13,000 | +$9,600 | 120% |
| Aug 2024 | $42,800 | $39,200 | -$14,900 | +$11,400 | 118% |
| Average | - | - | - | - | 118% |
NRR Benchmarks:
- <100%: Losing revenue from existing customers
- 100-110%: Healthy retention
- 110-120%: Excellent expansion (YeboLearn is here)
- 120%+: Best-in-class
NRR Drivers:
- Tier upgrades: 52% of expansion
- Student count increases: 28% of expansion
- Feature add-ons: 12% of expansion
- Annual → monthly price differential: 8%
Revenue Concentration
Customer Concentration Risk:
| Metric | Value | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Top 1 Customer (% of MRR) | 3.6% | Low |
| Top 5 Customers (% of MRR) | 15.4% | Low |
| Top 10 Customers (% of MRR) | 28.2% | Low-Medium |
| Top 20 Customers (% of MRR) | 42.8% | Medium |
Assessment: Healthy distribution, no single customer represents >5% of revenue
Tier Concentration:
- Professional tier: 61.9% of revenue (concentrated but not concerning)
- Enterprise tier: 21.9% of revenue (growing, good diversification)
- Essentials tier: 16.2% of revenue (entry segment)
Geographic Concentration:
- Gauteng: 43.4% of revenue (concentrated but manageable)
- Diversification strategy: Grow Western Cape and KZN to reduce dependency
Revenue Quality Score
Composite Revenue Quality Metric:
| Component | Weight | Score | Weighted Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRR >110% | 25% | 100 | 25 |
| Customer Concentration <50% | 20% | 85 | 17 |
| Gross Margin >75% | 20% | 95 | 19 |
| Expansion Revenue >25% of New | 15% | 100 | 15 |
| Churn <5% | 20% | 90 | 18 |
| Total Revenue Quality Score | 100% | - | 94/100 |
Interpretation: 94/100 = Excellent revenue quality (>90 = excellent, 70-90 = good, <70 = needs improvement)
Revenue Operations
Revenue Recognition
Recognition Policy:
- Monthly subscriptions: Recognized in month of service
- Annual subscriptions: Recognized ratably over 12 months
- Setup fees: Recognized upon service delivery (minimal)
Deferred Revenue: $185,000 (prepaid annual subscriptions)
Billing and Collections
Billing Metrics:
| Metric | Value | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Invoice Sent on Time | 99.8% | >99% |
| Auto-Payment Success | 96.2% | >95% |
| Payment Failure Rate | 3.8% | <5% |
| Avg Days to Collect | 2.3 days | <7 days |
| Accounts Receivable | $8,400 | ❤️% of MRR |
Collections Process:
- Day 0: Auto-charge via Stripe
- Day 3: Automated reminder for failed payments
- Day 7: CSM outreach for large accounts
- Day 14: Account suspension warning
- Day 30: Account suspension (service paused)
Revenue Optimization Strategies
Pricing Optimization
Current Pricing Strategy:
- Essentials: $100/month per 100 students (competitive entry)
- Professional: $200/month per 100 students (value positioning)
- Enterprise: Custom pricing $500+/month (premium tier)
Pricing Tests Planned (Q1 2026):
- Essentials $100 → $120 (test 20% increase)
- Professional annual discount 10% → 15% (encourage commitment)
- Enterprise value-based pricing (align to ROI delivered)
Expected Impact: +8% ARPU, minimal churn impact
Upsell and Cross-Sell
Upsell Opportunities:
- Essentials → Professional: 48 schools eligible, 17% conversion rate
- Professional → Enterprise: 85 schools, 12 eligible (>300 students), 7% conversion
Cross-Sell Add-Ons (Future):
- API access: $500/month (Enterprise only)
- Advanced analytics: $200/month (Professional+)
- White-label option: $1,000/month (Enterprise)
- Professional services: $2,000-5,000 one-time
Expansion Revenue Target: 35% of new MRR from existing customers
Next Steps
- Business Analytics - Overall business analytics framework
- Sales Analytics - Pipeline and conversion analysis
- Marketing Analytics - Channel performance and attribution
- Business Metrics - Core business KPIs